January – June 2026 · Shopify + Ad Spend Analysis
| Month | Ad Spend | Orders | Revenue | AOV | ROAS | Blend CPP | New CAC | New % | New AOV | Ret AOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $14,483 | 3,938 | $362,471 | $92.04 | 25.0x | $3.68 | $16.04 | 22.9% | $86.22 | $93.78 |
| February $0 Ads | — | 3,086 | $299,746 | $97.13 | — | — | — | 16.2% | $86.84 | $99.13 |
| March | $55,739 | 5,465 | $515,474 | $94.32 | 9.2x | $10.20 | $37.76 | 27.0% | $87.72 | $96.77 |
| April | $71,954 | 5,197 | $486,110 | $93.54 | 6.8x | $13.85 | $43.27 | 32.0% | $88.48 | $95.92 |
| May | $87,890 | 5,843 | $549,843 | $94.10 | 6.3x | $15.04 | $49.29 | 30.5% | $88.52 | $96.55 |
| June MTD | $62,884 | 4,079 | $377,013 | $92.43 | 6.0x | $15.42 | $22.04 | 35.6% | $88.13 | $94.80 |
| H1 Total | $292,950 | 27,608 | $2,590,657 | $93.84 | 8.8x | $10.61 | $31.91 | 28.2% | — | — |
Based on a Feb 15 – Jun 15 data window. LTV shown as lifetime to date — younger cohorts are still maturing. Feb cohort (~4 months mature) is the most representative benchmark.
| Cohort | Customers | Avg Orders | Repeat Rate | LTV (LTD) | New CAC | LTV:CAC | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | — | 1.92 | 49.1% | $192.23 | $0.00 | ∞ | Mature |
| Mar 2026 | 1,476 | 1.53 | 36.2% | $146.89 | $37.76 | 3.9x | 3.5mo |
| Apr 2026 | 1,663 | 1.31 | 25.3% | $121.96 | $43.27 | 2.8x | 2.5mo |
| May 2026 | 1,783 | 1.10 | 9.5% | $101.20 | $49.30 | 2.1x | 1.5mo |
| Jun 2026 | 2,853 | 1.02 | 2.3% | $91.33 | $22.04 | 4.1x | New |
How many times Feb-acquired customers ordered (within data window)
LTV grows as cohorts age — Feb trajectory is the benchmark
At $55–88K monthly spend, ROAS stabilizes around 6.0–6.8x. That's a healthy floor — every dollar returns $6+. The Jan 25x was on tiny $14K spend and isn't representative of scaled economics.
Acquisition cost rose steadily from $16 → $49 as spend scaled. June's pullback to $63K spend brought CAC down to $22 — a dramatic improvement suggesting the May spike was an over-spend anomaly and $60–65K is the efficiency sweet spot.
At ~4 months mature, the Feb cohort averages $192 in lifetime revenue with 1.92 orders/customer. 49% have already reordered. Projecting to 6+ months, mature LTV lands at $200–250 per customer — a strong foundation against $22–49 CAC.
Even immature cohorts already show 2–4x LTV:CAC. The Mar cohort at 3.9x and Jun at 4.1x (aided by the low $22 CAC) prove the acquisition engine works. At mature LTV of $200+ and CAC of $30–40, that's a sustainable 5–7x ratio.
$86–88 all year, every month. No degradation as you scale. The product-market fit is consistent — new buyers buy the same mix regardless of how many you acquire.
3,086 orders with zero ad spend. Either organic/direct traffic is massive, or there's missing ad spend data for February. Worth verifying — if real, that's an incredible organic baseline.
Returning AOV is consistently $6–12 higher than new AOV. 64% of June orders were from returning customers. This is a subscription-adjacent business — retention is the moat.
New customer share grew from 23% in Jan to 36% in June. The funnel is widening at the top. Combined with stable new AOV, this is exactly what you want from ad spend — fresh blood without degrading quality.